Tracking COVID; Los Angeles County Epidemic Focuses on North County, Lancaster/Palmdale

An article released June 27, 2021, in the LA Times describes the rise in Delta COVID from May to June, rising from 5% to 14%, reporting statewide data.  In LA County, there have been 123 Delta cases, 49 in Palmdale/Lancaster.    Lin, Money, Wigglesworth, here:

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-06-27/highly-contagious-delta-coronavirus-variant-spreading-in-california

A key fact is mentioned in passing: 49 of 123 Delta cases in North County.  

It's more than just that.  One of the biggest facts about the current COVID status in LA County is the packing of so many current COVID cases into just 5% of the population, those in Santa Clarita, Palmdale, Lancaster.  Together, these areas have 500,000 residents, only 5% of the population of LA County, which is 10 million.   

Los Angeles county is around 4,700 square miles; as a square, that's about 70x70 miles.   Santa Clarita (about 200,000) is at the far north rim of the San Fernando Valley, while Palmdale and Lancaster are 30 miles further out across the sparse high-country desert.

LA Times tracks statewide data here:

https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/

And county data here:

https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/los-angeles-county/

While pandemic-long data shows a fierce concentration of cases in North County and South Central LA, the current heat map is focused only on North County.  Compare left - the full 18 months - with right, the current 2 weeks.

18 month, left, 2 week, right

LA Times provides a long roster of cases per city or urban zone on the County webpage linked above.  I've put a cut/paste Excel version in the cloud here.

Palmdale, with 150,000 residents, has 209 cases in the past 14 days; Lancaster, about the same size, has had 173.   Santa Clarita, larger at about 200,000 residents, has had 126 cases.  

In contrast, Santa Monica, with almost 100,000 residents, had only 16 total cases in the past 14 days.  

Pacific Palisades, with a small population at 30,000, had 3 cases.  Together, though, Santa Monica and the Palisades are roughly comparable to the size of a Palmdale or Lancaster, each of which has ~200 cases.  

Burbank, with about 100,000 residents, had only 21 cases relative to the hundreds in Palmdale or Lancaster.

Using the LA Times tabular data, I added up 3414 cases in 14 days, of which 508 or 15%, occurred in Santa Clarita, Palmdale, Lancaster, with only 5% of the population. And most of those 508 cases are in just Palmdale/Lancaster, with only 3% of the county population.